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Source
The Independant. July 31 2006. By
Steve Connor, Science Editor
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A Nobel Prize-winning scientist has drawn up an emergency plan to
save the world from global warming, by altering the chemical makeup
of Earth’s upper atmosphere. Professor Paul Crutzen, who won a Nobel
Prize in 1995 for his work on the hole in the ozone layer, believes
that political attempts to limit man-made greenhouse gases are so
pitiful that a radical contingency plan is needed.
In a polemical scientific essay to be published in the August issue
of the journal Climate Change, he says that an “escape route” is
needed if global warming begins to run out of control.
Professor Crutzen has proposed a method of artificially cooling the
global climate by releasing particles of sulphur in the upper
atmosphere, which would reflect sunlight and heat back into space.
The controversial proposal is being taken seriously by scientists
because Professor Crutzen has a proven track record in atmospheric
research.
A fleet of high-altitude balloons could be used to scatter the
sulphur high overhead, or it could even be fired into the atmosphere
using heavy artillery shells, said Professor Crutzen, a researcher
at the Max Planck Institute for Chemistry in Germany.
The effect of scattering sulphate particles in the atmosphere would
be to increase the reflectance, or “albedo”, of the Earth, which
should cause an overall cooling effect.
Such “geo-engineering” of the climate has been suggested before, but
Professor Crutzen goes much further by drawing up a detailed model
of how it can be done, the timescales involved, and the costs.
In his forthcoming scientific paper, Professor Crutzen emphasises
that the best way of averting global climate disaster is for
countries to cut back significantly on their emissions of greenhouse
gases, notably carbon dioxide produced by burning oil, gas and coal.
But in the absence of such measures, and with the average global
temperature expected to rise more than 3C this century, there may
soon come a time when more extreme measures have to be considered,
he said. “If sizeable reductions in greenhouse gas emissions will
not happen and temperatures rise rapidly, then climatic engineering,
as presented here, is the only option available to rapidly reduce
temperature rises and counteract other climatic effects,” Professor
Crutzen said.
“Such a modification could also be stopped on short notice, if
undesirable and unforeseen side-effects become apparent, which would
allow the atmosphere to return to its prior state within a few
years,” he said. Such an idea is so controversial that some
scientists opposed its publication in the peer-reviewed scientific
press, fearing that it may encourage the view that it is easier to
treat the symptoms rather than the causes of climate change.
Professor Crutzen, however, argues that the “grossly disappointing”
international political response to the necessity of cuts in
greenhouse gas emissions means that it should no longer be
considered taboo to think about geo-engineering of the climate.
“Importantly, its possibility should not be used to justify
inadequate climate policies, but merely to create a possibility to
combat potentially drastic climate heating,” he said. “The very best
would be if emissions of the greenhouse gases could be reduced.
Currently, this looks like a pious wish.”
His plan is modelled partly on the Mount Pinatubo volcanic eruption
in 1991, when thousands of tons of sulphur were ejected into the
atmosphere causing global temperatures to fall.
Pinatubo generated sulphate aerosols in the atmosphere which cooled
the Earth by 0.5C on average in the following year. The sulphate
particles did this by acting like tiny mirrors, preventing a portion
of incoming sunlight from reaching the ground.
Professor Crutzen calculated that a relatively small amount of
sulphur could cause similar cooling if it was released at high
enough altitudes into the stratosphere, rather than at the lower
altitude of the troposphere. Weather balloons or even artillery
shells could be used to carry the sulphur. “Although climate cooling
by sulphate aerosols also occurs in the troposphere, the great
advantage of placing reflective particles in the stratosphere is
their long residence time of about one to two years, compared to a
week in the troposphere,” Professor Crutzen said.
“It may be possible to manufacture a special gas that is only
processed photochemically in the stratosphere to yield sulphate,” he
said. Such a compound should be non-toxic, insoluble in water,
non-reactive, and have a relatively short half-life of about 10
years.
It would cost between $25bn and $50bn – or about $25 or $50 per head
in the developed world – to launch sufficient sulphate to last for
up to two years.
But this high cost should be measured against the much bigger costs
of environmental disasters, such as coastal flooding, caused by
global warming, he said.
Side-effects could be an increase in the destruction of the ozone
layer and whitening of the sky, although the particles would make
sunsets and sunrises more spectacular, he said.
Other ‘geo-engineering’ ideas
Reflecting mirrors: Earth’s natural reflectance or “albedo” reflects
about 30 per cent of sunlight back into space. Increasing the albedo
could be done by building giant unfolding mirrors in space, laying
reflecting film in the deserts, or floating white plastic islands in
the ocean to mimic reflective effect of sea ice.
Swallowing up CO2: Marine plankton absorb carbon dioxide from the
atmosphere, which the microbes need for photosynthesis. The growth
of plankton is limited by the relatively small amounts of iron in
the sea. Scientists have conducted experiments on boosting plankton
by throwing iron filings into the sea.
Source: The Independent. Also available on The Belfast Telegraph
Related:
Sulphur the answer to climate woes?
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"You take the blue pill and
the story ends. You wake
in your
bed and you believe whatever you want to believe."

"You take the red pill and you stay in
Wonderland
and I show you how deep the rabbit-hole goes."

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